NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer choices for fall and spring hinge on China’s export stance, U.S.–Russia sanctions risk, and tight global ammonia supplies—factors that could swing budgets within weeks.
Josh Linville of StoneX says China plans to halt urea exports after Oct. 15; holding the cutoff would firm prices, while an extension would push more tons into the market and soften values. India just issued what it calls 2025’s final urea tender (~2 MMT; offers next week; ship by Dec. 10), likely drawing aggressive offers—especially if China stays open.
Urea-to-grain economics have improved but remain high. The biggest flashpoint is UAN: about half of U.S. UAN imports come from Russia, so any U.S. block would tighten an already thin system (low starting inventories, plant maintenance, Europe ~75% of normal, Trinidad gas issues), keeping UAN’s premium over other N. NH3 demand looks strong as the cheapest N per pound amid global tightness. Phosphates stay elevated with tariff headwinds and potential China curbs; potash is flat with uncertain fall pull.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
John Appel with the Farmers Business Network (FBN) joins us for a closer look at the 2026 Crop Protection Market Outlook Report.
October 27, 2025 01:00 PM
·
Farmers display a unique optimism — planting with the expectation that weather, basis, and prices will improve by harvest — asserting that the profession is an identity, not just a job.
October 27, 2025 12:12 PM
·
A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
October 27, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Stay alert for trade announcements—especially border reopening timelines, tariff threats, and developments in Brazil’s export flows.
October 24, 2025 01:56 PM
·
Margin Protection and the new MCO add county-level margin tools — with earlier price discovery, input cost triggers, and high subsidy rates — to complement on-farm risk plans for 2026.
October 24, 2025 01:44 PM
·
Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
October 24, 2025 11:05 AM
·
Bangladesh’s buying surge offers temporary relief for U.S. farmers facing weaker Chinese demand, highlighting how global politics can reshape export outlets overnight.
October 24, 2025 10:57 AM
·
October 24, 2025 09:58 AM
·
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
October 23, 2025 02:20 PM
·
