NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer choices for fall and spring hinge on China’s export stance, U.S.–Russia sanctions risk, and tight global ammonia supplies—factors that could swing budgets within weeks.
Josh Linville of StoneX says China plans to halt urea exports after Oct. 15; holding the cutoff would firm prices, while an extension would push more tons into the market and soften values. India just issued what it calls 2025’s final urea tender (~2 MMT; offers next week; ship by Dec. 10), likely drawing aggressive offers—especially if China stays open.
Urea-to-grain economics have improved but remain high. The biggest flashpoint is UAN: about half of U.S. UAN imports come from Russia, so any U.S. block would tighten an already thin system (low starting inventories, plant maintenance, Europe ~75% of normal, Trinidad gas issues), keeping UAN’s premium over other N. NH3 demand looks strong as the cheapest N per pound amid global tightness. Phosphates stay elevated with tariff headwinds and potential China curbs; potash is flat with uncertain fall pull.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
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American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland joins us to share his reaction to September’s WASDE and discuss the trade uncertainty between China and his industry.
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China has been largely absent from U.S. markets lately, but not when it comes to cotton. It’s a buy that, traders say, isn’t surprising given China’s limitations.
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U.S. producers are holding off on equipment investments amid financial pressure, market uncertainty, a rising demand for diesel, and growing desperation for trade wins.
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The September WASDE report comes out on Friday at Noon ET. As always, we’ll bring you those numbers right here on Market Day Report along with our expert
September 10, 2025 11:44 AM
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