NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global coarse grain production for the 2025–26 marketing year is projected slightly lower, but strong U.S. corn exports are providing a key source of support for domestic markets. USDA estimates global coarse grain output at 1.576 billion metric tons, trimmed on weaker corn production in Ukraine, Nigeria, and Canada, partially offset by higher global barley production.
For U.S. corn producers, the most significant adjustment is on the demand side. USDA raised its 2025–26 corn export forecast by 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion, citing robust foreign demand and a historically fast shipping pace early in the marketing year. First-quarter corn exports are now expected to approach 800 million bushels — nearly double the typical seasonal average and the strongest Q1 pace on record.
Reduced Black Sea supplies, logistical challenges, and slower-than-expected shipments from Argentina have constrained export competitiveness. Together, those factors have shifted global buyers toward U.S. corn.
Domestic corn supply projections remain unchanged ahead of final harvest updates, and the season-average farm price is held at $4.00 per bushel.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Record pace corn exports are helping stabilize prices despite softer global grain production and ongoing supply competition.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Dalton Henry, with U.S. Wheat Associates, joined RFD-TV to provide insight on what the pending trade frameworks may mean for American wheat growers.
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