ALDEN, IOWA (RFD-TV) — Harvest is wrapping up across much of the Corn Belt, with strong soybean yields and more variable corn production shaping the outlook for farmers and farmland markets. Despite lower commodity prices and ongoing input cost concerns, farmland values are holding relatively steady as demand continues into the busy fall auction season.
Justin Bahr, accredited farm manager with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA), joined Market Day Report to discuss harvest progress, the USDA’s November WASDE report, cash rent considerations and farmland demand.
In an interview with RFD-TV, Bahr said soybean harvest was largely wrapped up by mid-to-late October, while corn harvest faced delays after a wet September and scattered rainfall throughout October and early November.
He expects corn harvest to pick up as drier conditions create more opportunities for fieldwork.
“By Thanksgiving, I think a lot of growers will be done,” Bahr said.
Soybean Yields Strong; Corn Varies as Iowa Harvest Nears Completion
Soybean yields have been surprisingly good across much of the region, according to Bahr. He said it is not uncommon for growers on good-quality farmland to report yields of 70 to 80 bushels per acre or more.
Corn results have varied more by location. Western Iowa, southern Minnesota and eastern Nebraska have reported strong yields, with some producers seeing 222 to 250 bushels per acre or better.
Eastern Iowa and Illinois have experienced more variability. Bahr said some producers on good-quality ground are reporting corn yields down 10% to 15% from last year.
He also pointed to tar spot pressure in parts of Nebraska and dry growing-season conditions in parts of southern Minnesota as factors affecting production.
WASDE Report Reflects Regional Yield Differences
Bahr said USDA’s November WASDE report brought the national corn yield estimate closer to what many producers and farm managers were seeing in the field.
The projected national average corn yield declined from 181.2 bushels per acre in October to 179.6 bushels. Soybean yields increased, although not as much as some market participants had expected.
He pointed to regional adjustments, including an eight-bushel-per-acre reduction in Illinois corn yield estimates, while Iowa’s estimate remained steady and Minnesota’s increased.
Despite generally strong yields, lower commodity prices are continuing to squeeze farm margins. Bahr said corn prices have declined roughly 10% to 15% from late August and early September levels.
He noted that farm program payments and potential fuel relief assistance could provide some support, but uncertainty around input costs remains.
Farmland Values Hold as Demand Continues
Bahr said farmland values are holding relatively steady, with the fourth quarter traditionally one of the busiest periods for farmland sales.
High-quality farmland continues to attract strong interest and, in some areas, may be bringing higher prices. Buyers are becoming more selective with average-quality properties as interest rates and lower commodity prices influence purchasing decisions.
He described the current auction calendar as especially active, with roughly 30 auctions scheduled across more than two dozen Midwest real estate groups. Those sales represent nearly 5,000 tillable acres, with an estimated $60 million to $75 million in potential land transactions.
Bahr said the continued activity demonstrates that demand for farmland remains present, even as buyers evaluate current farm economics more carefully.
Cash Rent Decisions Require Careful Planning
With some producers still negotiating leases for the coming year, Bahr said decisions are happening at different stages depending on whether landlords and tenants are waiting for final yield information or already discussing next season’s input costs.
Strong yields can help offset lower prices, but tighter margins make it important to evaluate the full cost of production when setting rental rates.
LEARN MORE: www.asfmra.org
