KANSAS CITY, MO. (RFD-TV) — USDA is projecting a smaller U.S. corn crop and increased soybean production in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for November (PDF Version), released Tuesday.
Market specialist Tony St. James spoke with StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman following the report’s release to break down the numbers and the market reaction.
The department lowered its 2026 corn production forecast by 141 million bushels to 15.9 billion bushels. The national average yield estimate also declined by 1.6 bushels to 179.6 bushels per acre. With a smaller crop, USDA reduced its forecast for corn exports and feed use, while lowering the projected season-average farm price by 10 cents to $4.60 per bushel.
The soybean outlook moved in the opposite direction. USDA increased its production estimate by 12 million bushels to 4.6 billion bushels, citing improved yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska. Soybean exports were raised by 25 million bushels, while projected ending stocks declined 15 million bushels to 300 million. The projected season-average soybean price increased 10 cents to $12.10 per bushel.
Wheat ending stocks were raised slightly to 743 million bushels, although they remain 19 percent below last year. USDA lowered its projected average farm price by 10 cents to $6.20 per bushel.
In the livestock sector, USDA lowered its 2026 beef production forecast, citing slower fed cattle marketings and lighter dressed weights. Cattle price forecasts were also reduced for the remainder of 2026, while the 2027 outlook remained unchanged. Milk production forecasts increased for both 2026 and 2027, supported by higher projected cow inventories and production per cow.
The November report also lowered the U.S. cotton production forecast by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million bales.
Corn Yield Comes in Below Expectations
USDA projected the national average corn yield at 179.6 bushels per acre, down from 181.2 bushels in October and below the average trade estimate of 180.3 bushels.
In his interview with RFD-TV, Suderman said the market had been preparing for the possibility of a higher yield estimate.
“The market was bracing for a possible increase in corn. They got a decrease,” he said.
The soybean yield estimate came in at 53.3 bushels per acre, up two-tenths from the previous month but two-tenths below trade expectations. Suderman said the smaller-than-expected increase provided some relief to soybean traders.
Ending Stocks Leave Little Room for Error
Suderman said ending stocks remain a major focus for the grain markets.
USDA placed projected U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.758 billion bushels, representing a stocks-to-use ratio slightly above 10%. He described that level as adequate but said it leaves limited room for production problems.
Soybean ending stocks were projected at 300 million bushels, a tighter supply outlook that has the market watching closely for additional production risks.
“It’s adequate, but not much margin for error,” Suderman said of the corn balance sheet. “Soybeans at 300 million bushels, that’s getting pretty tight right now.”
He said traders are considering what further yield declines or potential production problems in South America could mean for supplies. The possibility of an El Niño weather pattern adds another factor to watch as the growing season approaches.
USDA Estimates Fall Below Trade Expectations
The USDA projections also came in below StoneX’s customer survey estimates. StoneX had projected a corn yield of 183.14 bushels per acre and a soybean yield of 55 bushels.
Suderman said those higher expectations had left the market prepared for the possibility of a larger crop estimate, making USDA’s lower numbers a source of relief.
He also noted that speculative funds had largely moved to even positions in corn, while maintaining some long positions in soybeans. Strong biofuel demand and Chinese buying have helped support soybean market interest.
Following the report, Suderman said the market reaction suggested some of that investment interest was returning.
Demand and South American Production Ahead
Looking beyond the latest report, Suderman said market attention will increasingly shift toward demand and South American crop development.
He said weather conditions in South America could become especially important given the relatively tight soybean supply outlook.
Suderman also pointed to ongoing geopolitical negotiations involving Russia and Ukraine and discussions involving Iran as outside factors that could influence grain markets in either direction.
He said developments in those areas could either support the current market rally or put pressure on prices, with wheat potentially more vulnerable to weakness.
