Take USDA’s latest report around chicken production and eggs with a grain of salt

A big part of Secretary Rollins’ agenda will be shifting away from depopulating flocks hit by High-Path Avian Flu and instead focusing on efforts like vaccination. Critics argue depopulation is sending egg prices soaring, and others argue vaccinations could interrupt international trade.

The latest USDA report shows a dozen eggs pushing $4.50, but analysts say that does not take into account the millions of birds lost already this year.

“The U.S. lost about 43 million birds in January and February, after this report. Now this is about 25 percent or a quarter of all the birds affected since the outbreak began 2022, and this is not yet captured in this report,” said Bernt Nelson.

Data shows the average New York wholesale price for large eggs at the end of January at nearly $7.50 per dozen, which is up more than 150 percent on the year. Analysts say average prices are expected to rise as the year carries on.

Related Stories
As spring migration ramps up, USDA officials warn farmers about rising bird flu risks and urge stronger biosecurity measures. Resources are available through APHIS to help protect livestock.
APHIS Veterinary Medical Officer Dr. Chelsey Shiveley discusses USDA’s biosecurity resources available to poultry producers ahead of spring migration, increasing the risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) threatens commercial flocks.
Pennsylvania Secretary of Agriculture Russell Redding discusses the recent surge in bird flu cases, the state’s expanded biosecurity response and efforts to support poultry producers.
Higher livestock prices reflect resilient demand, even as disease and herd shifts reshape 2026 supply expectations.
Georgia has regained its HPAI-free status after a swift response to October’s detection. Commissioner Tyler Harper urges producers to stay vigilant and maintain biosecurity.
A smaller U.S. turkey flock and resurgent avian flu have tightened supplies, driving prices higher even as other key holiday foods show mixed trends.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the implications for farmers.
Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
RFD-TV tax expert Roger McEowen discusses the renewed tax provision and how cattle producers can take advantage of it to recover investments in heifer retention and herd expansion more quickly.
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) shares his perspective on the U.S.-China trade developments and their potential impact on American producers, farmers, and ranchers.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.