WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Export uncertainty is tightening the screws on cash flow and local basis, with fresh China–U.S. tensions and court action amplifying bid volatility for soybeans and products. Beijing’s stepped-up rare-earth export curbs add another lever in the trade standoff.
At the same time, Washington has announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 — a headline that tends to widen day-to-day bid swings in row-crop country. The Supreme Court has also fast-tracked the review of presidential tariff authorities, keeping policy risk elevated throughout the harvest period.
India is a partial bright spot. New Delhi is signaling bigger U.S. energy and LNG purchases alongside talks aiming to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 — even after August tariff hikes of up to 50% on Indian goods. Those purchases could open incremental lanes for U.S. oilseeds, feed ingredients, and ethanol co-products as negotiators work toward a first-phase deal.
Closer to home, Argentina’s policy flips have whipsawed offer sheets. A short-lived suspension of agro-export taxes — and rapid reinstatement after sales surged — briefly improved Argentine competitiveness into shared destinations, pressuring Gulf basis, barges, and crush margins. Merchandisers are keeping port and timing optionality as South American flows reshape meal and corn competition.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.
Tony St. James, RFD Markets Specialist
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Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
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New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
October 14, 2025 11:33 AM
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President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
October 14, 2025 11:12 AM
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Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
October 13, 2025 04:34 PM
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“Good flies? Is that like a good fire ant?” Miller said. “I don’t know what a good fly is. I don’t know if they’re afraid to kill house flies or stable flies, but I’m ready to kill the screwworm fly.”
October 13, 2025 01:28 PM
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Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
October 13, 2025 10:40 AM
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Rex Gray, Corn Product Manager for Golden Harvest, discusses how the company works side-by-side with farmers to develop strong-performing hybrids built to fit their acres.
October 10, 2025 01:23 PM
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
October 09, 2025 05:10 PM
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