The U.S. herd is now the smallest since 1961

That fact – not tariffs – is behind high beef prices, asserts former NCBA President.

The size of the U.S. herd was a subject during a rare weekend Congressional hearing. The House Ways and Means Committee was in California, where a former NCBA president set the record straight on consumer prices.

“I’d like just to say real quickly for high retail beef prices, it has nothing to do with tariffs, it’s simply a supply and demand issue. We have the lowest beef herd since 1961 here in the U.S. Consumer demand even at the high retail prices, U.S. consumer demand hasn’t dropped one iota to my happy surprise, and it’s because of the quality of beef here in the U.S., so it’s not related to tariffs or anything else, it’s simple supply and demand and and we just need to grow our beef for a little bit more,” said Kevin Kester, NCBA Past President & California rancher.

The newly reinstated July inventory report offered little hope that it will happen anytime soon. It shows a downward trend all across the board. All cattle and calves are down one percent. Steers are also down, dropping one percent on the year.

The number of cattle was also in the red. Inventory is down two percent on the year. Steers and steer calf numbers gained a percent during the same time. The number of heifers and heifer calves fell five percent from last year with placements down eight percent.

Related Stories
Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 agenda centers on labor stability, biosecurity, and economic resilience for family farms. Expanded DMC coverage improves risk protection for dairy operations facing tighter margins.
A high-stakes legal case in a South Dakota federal court concerning misleading country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL), such as “Product of the USA,” on food products, will significantly impact U.S. agricultural policy for years to come.
Secretary Rollins also met with specialty crop producers at a local strawberry farm to discuss workforce needs and the Trump Administration’s recent wins related to significantly cutting the cost of H-2A labor for California farmers.
China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable. Jake Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance offers his perspective on cattle markets, risk management, and producer sentiment.
Structural efficiency supports cattle prices and resilience — breaking it risks higher costs and greater volatility.
Strong pork demand and improving beef exports outside China support protein markets despite ongoing trade barriers.

Agriculture Shows
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.
Crop yield champions David Hula from Virginia and Randy Dowdy from Georgia are back for another season with the aim of schooling more growers across the country in their winning ways.
“Texas Agriculture Matters” is a fun, informative look at the role of agriculture in our daily lives. The show utilizes the trademark wit and wisdom of its host Commissioner Sid Miller — an 8th-generation farmer-rancher and 12-time World Champion rodeo cowboy — to explore a new Texas ag-related topic each week.