NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — When calf prices are high, it is easy to look at bred heifer prices and assume you can raise replacements cheaper—but the math is trickier than it looks.
University of Kentucky Extension livestock economist Kenny Burdine points to three big guardrails:
- Opportunity cost—the largest cost of a homegrown heifer is the cash you don’t take by selling her at weaning (and high interest rates make that foregone income even more expensive).
- Attrition and selection risk—not every heifer you develop will breed or meet your standards; the “misses” get sold as feeders, and their losses get rolled into the cost of the ones that do make your herd.
- Timing value—a bred heifer purchased this fall likely weans a calf in 2026, while a weaned heifer you retain won’t produce until 2027; if 2026 is a strong calf year, that earlier calf value is already “priced into” today’s bred heifer.
Practically, compare apples to apples: start with her market value at weaning as your first cost, add realistic development expenses (feed, grazing, breeding, health, labor, facilities), include conception rates and cull losses, and apply a sensible interest or discount rate. Then run a timing scenario for 2026 vs. 2027 calf values to see which path best fits your cash flow, genetics goals, forage base, and labor.
Farm-Level Takeaway: You cannot out-cheap the market if you ignore opportunity cost, culls, and timing—price the heifer you keep as if you bought her, and let realistic breeding and calf-year assumptions pick the winner.
Related Stories
San Angelo Stock Show & Rodeo Association’s Trenton Priddy preview this year’s event, which is now streaming on RFD+
Representative Henry Cuellar (D-TX), who sits on the U.S. House Appropriations Committee, spoke exclusively with RFD NEWS about what Congress is doing to address screwworm concerns, including funding for a sterile fly production facility in Mexico.
HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy calls on cattle producers to retain breeding cows while Ivomec receives emergency authorization to prevent New World screwworm.
The U.S. trade deal with Argentina creates new export opportunities for U.S. livestock and crop producers but also raises competitive concerns.
Policies aimed at ground beef prices may primarily reshape dairy incentives rather than deliver lasting consumer savings.
Ranchbot Monitoring Solutions provides remote water-monitoring technology to help ranchers manage livestock water more efficiently.
