NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — When calf prices are high, it is easy to look at bred heifer prices and assume you can raise replacements cheaper—but the math is trickier than it looks.
University of Kentucky Extension livestock economist Kenny Burdine points to three big guardrails:
- Opportunity cost—the largest cost of a homegrown heifer is the cash you don’t take by selling her at weaning (and high interest rates make that foregone income even more expensive).
- Attrition and selection risk—not every heifer you develop will breed or meet your standards; the “misses” get sold as feeders, and their losses get rolled into the cost of the ones that do make your herd.
- Timing value—a bred heifer purchased this fall likely weans a calf in 2026, while a weaned heifer you retain won’t produce until 2027; if 2026 is a strong calf year, that earlier calf value is already “priced into” today’s bred heifer.
Practically, compare apples to apples: start with her market value at weaning as your first cost, add realistic development expenses (feed, grazing, breeding, health, labor, facilities), include conception rates and cull losses, and apply a sensible interest or discount rate. Then run a timing scenario for 2026 vs. 2027 calf values to see which path best fits your cash flow, genetics goals, forage base, and labor.
Farm-Level Takeaway: You cannot out-cheap the market if you ignore opportunity cost, culls, and timing—price the heifer you keep as if you bought her, and let realistic breeding and calf-year assumptions pick the winner.
Related Stories
Brandy Carroll with the Arkansas Farm Bureau shares an update on planting conditions and what producers are facing this season.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains shifting global trade dynamics and what they could mean for agriculture and energy markets.
Aris Georgiadis with Dairy Management Inc. joined us to discuss the “Dairy Does More” campaign and how it is working to boost demand for dairy.
Rising diesel and energy costs are squeezing farmers and rural communities, increasing production expenses and raising concerns about consumer demand for beef even as U.S. meat exports regain the Australian market.
Texas ranchers and lawmakers warn of renewed New World screwworm risks, highlighting prevention efforts, border concerns, and the role of sterile flies in protecting U.S. livestock.
USDA Undersecretary Dr. Mindy Brashears provides more insight on the updated “Product of USA” label campaign and the USDA’s goals for both consumers and producers.
