NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — When calf prices are high, it is easy to look at bred heifer prices and assume you can raise replacements cheaper—but the math is trickier than it looks.
University of Kentucky Extension livestock economist Kenny Burdine points to three big guardrails:
- Opportunity cost—the largest cost of a homegrown heifer is the cash you don’t take by selling her at weaning (and high interest rates make that foregone income even more expensive).
- Attrition and selection risk—not every heifer you develop will breed or meet your standards; the “misses” get sold as feeders, and their losses get rolled into the cost of the ones that do make your herd.
- Timing value—a bred heifer purchased this fall likely weans a calf in 2026, while a weaned heifer you retain won’t produce until 2027; if 2026 is a strong calf year, that earlier calf value is already “priced into” today’s bred heifer.
Practically, compare apples to apples: start with her market value at weaning as your first cost, add realistic development expenses (feed, grazing, breeding, health, labor, facilities), include conception rates and cull losses, and apply a sensible interest or discount rate. Then run a timing scenario for 2026 vs. 2027 calf values to see which path best fits your cash flow, genetics goals, forage base, and labor.
Farm-Level Takeaway: You cannot out-cheap the market if you ignore opportunity cost, culls, and timing—price the heifer you keep as if you bought her, and let realistic breeding and calf-year assumptions pick the winner.
Related Stories
Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses keep pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
The USDA’s August Cold Storage report shows shifting stock levels across major dairy, meat, and poultry products.
The total value of the U.S. potato crop was $4.60 billion in 2024, representing an 8% decrease from the previous year.
Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.
The decline in production marks the second consecutive year of contraction in the U.S. turkey industry.
The USDA noted that peanut edible utilization season-to-date is down 3% on the year, despite overall stocks increasing.
A booming butterfat market is good for some dairy products but threatens efficiency and margins for cheesemakers unless protein levels catch up
While treatable with a vaccine, anthrax is a dangerous threat to cattle herd health if not identified and treated immediately.
Smaller flocks and lower lay rates are pressuring table egg supplies, even as hatchery activity edges higher.
