NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
January 05, 2026 03:00 PM
·
Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
January 05, 2026 02:49 PM
·
Cotton demand depends on demonstrating performance and reliability buyers can rely on, not messaging alone.
January 05, 2026 02:41 PM
·
A look at the legislative year ahead as lawmakers return to Washington with a slate of trade concerns to tackle in 2026—from new Chinese tariffs on beef imports to the USMCA review this summer.
January 05, 2026 12:20 PM
·
Shaun Haney, Host of
RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
January 05, 2026 10:41 AM
·
The New Year is here, but in Oregon, some ranchers and livestock producers are still trying to recover from record wildfires back in 2024.
January 05, 2026 09:46 AM
·
As markets anticipate a return to normal trading following the New Year’s holiday, the possibility of the southern border re-opening to cattle is capturing much attention.
December 30, 2025 11:28 AM
High ownership does not always translate into high output, underscoring the importance of structural differences in understanding state-level farm performance.
December 28, 2025 03:00 PM
·
Record yields are cushioning production declines, but softer prices underscore the importance of cost control and market timing for vegetable growers.
December 28, 2025 08:00 AM
·
