NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Top issues facing the beef industry took center stage at CattleCon this year in Nashville.
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Texas cowboy chef and host of RFD Network’s Twisted Skillet, Sean Koehler, shares an elote-style street corn dip just in time for Super Bowl Sunday. This skillet-cooked corn dish combines open-fire cooking and bold regional flavors for a delicious twist on Mexican Street Corn.
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Predator pressure and public lands policy were front and center at CattleCon.
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The USDA’s February WASDE report looms as the CME Ag Economy Barometer shows declining farmer confidence, and more ag industry groups calling for swift policy action.
February 06, 2026 04:18 PM
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San Angelo Stock Show & Rodeo Association’s Trenton Priddy preview this year’s event, which is now streaming on RFD+
February 06, 2026 03:55 PM
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Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.
February 06, 2026 12:27 PM
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