NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Natural disasters are a growing force behind food-price pressure and tighter farm margins — and drought is the biggest culprit, according to a new Trace One study by Federico Fontanella.
Using FEMA and USDA data, researchers estimate average annual U.S. agricultural losses of $3.48 billion, with drought accounting for $1.9 billion — more than half.
On the other hand, Hurricanes contribute about $485 million a year, flooding accounts for $437 million, and cold waves add $286 million. Hail, wind, heat waves, tornadoes, winter weather, and wildfires contribute hundreds of millions more in ag losses.
Drought-Related Ag Losses Uneven Across Regions
California leads with ~$1.3 billion in expected annual farm losses — and the highest per-farm hit (~$20,528) — reflecting the vulnerability of high-value fruits, nuts, and vegetables to water scarcity. Next are Texas (~$205 million), then Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida. At the county level, Santa Barbara, CA tops the list at ~$245 million a year, with Yolo, Napa, Sutter, and Colusa also high. Nationally, the average per-farm loss is $1,851.
Recent shocks show how hazards translate to costs — April 2025 flooding in eastern Arkansas damaged ~$99 million in crops, while Hurricane Helene (2024) prompted $221.2 million in USDA disaster block grants for North Carolina.
Corey Rosenbusch with The Fertilizer Institute joined us to discuss supply chain disruptions and what farmers should watch as global tensions impact fertilizer markets.
