Transportation Costs Shift Corn And Soybean Export Outlook

Cheaper freight is helping exports move, especially corn, but weaker soybean demand looms large.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Transportation costs for U.S. grain exports eased in the second quarter of 2025, lowering landed costs for most routes and boosting inspection volumes.

October rail freight costs for grain have dropped to their lowest level in six years as sluggish soybean export demand weighs on the market.

The USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service reported that Gulf-route transportation costs fell 1 percent for both corn and soybeans compared to last year, with ocean freight down 24 percent. Quarter-to-quarter, costs dropped 18 percent for corn and 22 percent for soybeans thanks to cheaper trucking and the seasonal reopening of the Upper Mississippi River.

Corn inspections through the Gulf reached 10 million metric tons (394 million bushels), up 43 percent year-over-year, while soybean inspections totaled 2.9 million metric tons (mmt), or 106 million bushels, up 7 percent.

In the Pacific Northwest, transportation costs fell 7 percent for corn and 6 percent for soybeans from last year. Inspections there rose to 6.8 mmt (268 million bushels) of corn, up 26 percent, and 0.2 mmt (7 million bushels) of soybeans, up 222 percent.

Looking ahead, USDA projects U.S. corn exports in 2025/26 to climb 2 percent to 73.03 mmt (2.87 billion bushels), while soybean exports are expected to fall 9 percent to 46.40 mmt (1.70 billion bushels).

Analysts say China’s absence from U.S. corn and soybean purchases remains a key uncertainty even as Mexico, Japan, and South Korea continue to anchor demand.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Cheaper freight is helping exports move, especially corn, but weaker soybean demand looms large. Farmers should watch Gulf and PNW flows closely as transportation and trade dynamics set the tone for the new marketing year.
Related Stories
U.S. soybean farmers are growing increasingly frustrated by Argentina’s gains in Chinese grain contracts and Trump’s pledge of economic support for the South American ally.
The USDA is moving to close the farm trade gap through promotion, missions, and stronger export financing.
Midwest corn and soy producers are monitoring for disease and lower yields due to the ongoing drought over the last 30 days.
Industry-wide participation in SHIP enhances biosecurity and fosters global trust in U.S. pork, says swine health expert, Dr. Christine Mainquist-Whigham.
Argentina hopes to boost demand, but critics see the move as a blow to American farmers.
China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
Rollins says the new trade relationship with Taiwan, which is committed to buying a significant amount of U.S. soy, could not come at a better time for farmers facing financial strain.
The three-point plan was announced during remarks at the annual meeting of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The government reopens after 43 days. USDA resumes key reports, weighs farm aid, and watches China’s next move on U.S. soybean purchases.
Jeramy Stephens with National Land Realty shares tips for fall and winter to guide landowners and farmers.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney shares insights from a recent study, discusses EV market access in Canada, and highlights other market opportunities top of mind for Canadian producers.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom shares how recent trade talks are influencing U.S. red meat global sales and the importance of key trade agreements like the USMCA.
Iowa Ag Secretary Naig recaps discussions surrounding a potential federal aid package for farmers and shares insights on producer sentiment in the Heartland.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold, President of the University of Nebraska, joined RFD-TV to discuss coping strategies for those aching joints.