Tree Nut Outlook Mixed as Tightening Almond Supply Supports Prices, While Pistachios Hold Steady

California almond acreage tightens while pistachios shift into an off-year, shaping a mixed outlook for prices and supply in the tree nut market.

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, CALIFORNIA (RFD News) — Two different trends are shaping California’s tree nut industry. Almond acreage is tightening after several years of pressure, while pistachios are moving from a strong production year into a lighter crop cycle.

Producer William Bourdeau says those shifts could begin to show up in the marketplace, explaining that tightening supply could help bring almond prices closer to balance as demand strengthens.

“You know, I’m optimistic that almond prices will improve, and there’s a lot of acres that came out of production. There are a lot of acres that were deficit-irrigated. They’re a sensitive crop, and so I do think supply and demand equilibrium will start sorting itself out. And as demand increases and supply goes down, the price should improve. And so I’m optimistic.”

On the other hand, pistachio prices are holding steady, despite a shifting outlook for the upcoming harvest.

“Pistachios, we still have a decent price,” Bourdeau said. “I think this is an off year. So we had a really big crop last year. It’s going to be a more modest crop this year. So I think prices will remain close to the same as last year. And so I’m very optimistic that pistachios, if we don’t have some strange weather events or something that adversely impacts the yield, I feel really good about pistachios in the near term.”

He adds that, barring weather disruptions, pistachios are expected to remain steady in the months ahead.

Related Stories
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, November 17, 2025.
Brooks York with Agrisompo joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report with some guidance on how producers can navigate their crop insurance claims for unsold grain crops.
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.

Knoxville native Neal Burnette-Irwin is a graduate from MTSU where he majored in Journalism and Entertainment Studies. He works as a digital content producer with RFD News and is represented by multiple talent agencies in Nashville and Chicago.


LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Large-scale land purchases signal rising competition for ranchland, reinforcing its value while reshaping long-term access and control in rural agriculture.
Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist with CoBank, shares insights into current demand trends and the challenges facing broiler production.
Jack Hubbard, with the Center for the Environment and Welfare, shares context and perspective on the controversial letter about Prop 12 circulating in Washington and how a review shows it misled the public.
AFBF Economist Faith Parum discusses the financial challenges currently facing farmers and the Farm Bureau’s 2026 outlook for the farm economy.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.