NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports has created immediate uncertainty for spring supply and pricing, according to analysis from Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX. The U.S. relies heavily on Canada for several key nutrients, making the market highly sensitive to policy shifts.
Potash represents the largest exposure: about 90 percent of U.S. potash imports come from Canada, meaning any tariff would likely raise farmer costs to keep tons moving south. Ammonia markets face similar pressures, as Canada accounts for nearly half of U.S. imports. UAN could also rise in price, with Canada responsible for roughly 20 percent of U.S. inflows. Urea impacts should be minimal because Canada ships relatively little to the U.S. market.
Global conditions add to uncertainty, as Europe’s nitrogen output remains constrained, China slows phosphate exports, and potash trade remains unusually quiet.
Following President Trump’s announcement of the new Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, producers are now seeking clarity on another emerging issue: the possibility of fertilizer tariffs. With input affordability already a significant concern, the agriculture sector is watching closely for signals from the White House.
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest. Haney explained the president’s interest in potential tariffs and what may be motivating the discussion. He also addressed the likelihood of such a move, given farmers’ ongoing struggles with high fertilizer costs.
Looking ahead, Haney weighed in on whether the pressure surrounding fertilizer prices might ease in 2026, noting that producers are eager for signs of relief as they plan for the year ahead.
