AUBURN, Ala. (RFD-TV) – Turkey supplies for the 2025 holiday season are projected to be lower, setting the stage for firmer prices heading into Thanksgiving.
Poultry economists note that poultry placements have lagged throughout most of the year, with both toms and hens down compared to 2024. While July egg sets ticked up one percent year-over-year, overall placements remain light, meaning fewer fresh birds will be available this fall. Frozen stocks are also below historical averages, suggesting tight supplies for the November holiday.
Wholesale fresh turkey prices are already trending higher. Small lot prices moved into the $1.55 per pound range in early September, up from last year’s levels, while larger buyers have held near $1.40 per pound under contracted terms. Analysts expect further increases as holiday demand builds and cold storage inventories are drawn down.
Adding to supply pressure is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that more than 195,000 turkeys have been lost to HPAI outbreaks since August, with wildfowl migration increasing the risk of further spread this fall. Following the loss of over 18 million birds to HPAI in recent years, turkey production has remained below average, and recovery has been slow.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply. Consumers should expect tighter availability and stronger prices for fresh and frozen birds at Thanksgiving.
September 24, 2025 10:23 AM
Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
September 23, 2025 01:32 PM
·
China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
September 23, 2025 01:21 PM
·
Lamb prices have seen a surprising surge driven by a tight supply and increasing demand in non-traditional markets.
September 23, 2025 12:40 PM
·
“We believe that it is just a matter of days or weeks... before we see New World screwworm in Texas.”
September 23, 2025 11:08 AM
September 23, 2025 09:42 AM
·
According to the most recent version of the Household Food Security Report for 2022-2023, food insecurity is on the rise in the U.S.
September 22, 2025 01:49 PM
·
Record U.S. sorghum crop faces weak demand as China slashes imports, while corn farmers warn of rising costs, shrinking margins, and global market pressures.
September 22, 2025 11:46 AM
·
With the latest detection just across the border, animal health officials on both sides are intensifying efforts to contain the outbreak before it spreads further north.
September 22, 2025 09:51 AM
·
