Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
Feel the earth move as beautiful Belgians, powerful Percherons, and classic Clydesdales thunder into the arena!
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food inflation, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices for beef, eggs, and dairy.
Higher menu prices and tax-free tips are reshaping restaurant economics, sharply lifting server take-home pay even as diners face higher out-the-door costs.
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

This week on Champions of Rural America, Congressman Nick Begich discusses the lease sale, its economic impact, and what it could mean for future energy production in Alaska.
SoilView’s Chris Nelson explains why soil testing is essential, how it enhances nutrient management, and why growers should focus on data-driven strategies to guide planting and fertilization this year.
Corn Refiners Association VP Kristy Goodfellow offered insight into the Feeding the Economy Report’s key findings, showing the breadth of agriculture’s economic impact and the challenges ahead.
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney discusses Canada’s new soil health strategy, its implications for producers, and its potential to support sustainable agriculture in Canada compared to USDA funding for conservation.
National Association of Wheat Growers President Jamie Kress discusses how rising fertilizer prices pressure wheat producers and the Administration’s consideration of lowering duties on Moroccan phosphate.
Premieres on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.