Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.
Expanded aerial capacity strengthens the U.S.–Mexico buffer against screwworm, providing cattle producers with stronger protection heading into winter and reducing risk to herds along the southern tier.
The facility will increase the range of sterile fly release and bolster preparedness for New World Screwworm.
Winter weather will challenge livestock producers working to rebuild their herds despite harsh conditions.
Rural businesses report softer sales, tougher hiring, and restrained investment — a backdrop that can pinch farm support capacity even if posted prices cool.
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.
A smaller U.S. turkey flock and resurgent avian flu have tightened supplies, driving prices higher even as other key holiday foods show mixed trends.

Agriculture Shows
Farmweek is broadcast from Mississippi, one of the South’s most geographically diverse states. The Magnolia State’s most important resource is its people—and about a fourth of the state’s population hold jobs tied to agriculture.
“DocTalk” with host Dr. Dan Thomson will be teaming up with practitioners around the country to tackle issues with your livestock.
This high-yield corn contest showcases real-life Corn Warriors dealing with elements that every farmer knows well. Get an authentic look at what it takes to compete in a high-yield corn contest, and see who will take the title of Corn King.
As the trusted voice of the U.S. cattle and beef industry, the National Cattlemen Beef Association strives to share timely, relevant news. NCBA’s “Cattlemen to Cattlemen” is the leading TV show for beef producers to receive cattle industry news, education, and information.
America’s Heartland brings positive, heartfelt stories about American agriculture to viewers in both urban and rural areas.