Tyson Signals Diverging Protein Outlook for 2026 as Global Meat Prices Dip

Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.

19297661-g.jpeg

Tyson Foods

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) Global meat prices edged lower in January, slipping four-tenths of a percent, according to new data from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.9 points, down slightly from December, though still more than 6 percent higher than a year ago. Falling pork prices led the decline, as strong hog supplies in the European Union and softer global demand weighed on the market.

Poultry prices rose on stronger demand from Brazil, while beef and sheep meat remained largely stable. Overall, global food prices also dipped for a fifth straight month.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Tyson Foods reported mixed first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, with strong demand in chicken and prepared foods offset by ongoing pressure in beef. The company said shifting protein supplies and tighter cattle inventories will shape market conditions through the year.

Tyson posted first-quarter sales of $14.3 billion, up just over 5 percent from a year earlier, while adjusted operating income declined as beef losses weighed on overall margins. Management said chicken volumes posted their fifth straight quarter of year-over-year gains, reflecting continued consumer demand and market share expansion.

Looking ahead, Tyson expects beef production to fall by about 2 percent in 2026, leading to an operating loss of $250 million to $500 million for the segment as cattle supplies remain tight. Pork production is projected to increase by about 2 percent, with operating income expected to be between $250 million and $300 million. Chicken remains the strongest performer, with Tyson projecting operating income of $1.65 billion to $1.9 billion on modest production growth.

The company expects higher government data to show that overall U.S. protein output will rise by about a percent in 2026, while Tyson focuses on execution, cost control, and capital discipline.

Related Stories
The USDA’s August Cold Storage report shows shifting stock levels across major dairy, meat, and poultry products.
The total value of the U.S. potato crop was $4.60 billion in 2024, representing an 8% decrease from the previous year.
Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.
The decline in production marks the second consecutive year of contraction in the U.S. turkey industry.
The USDA noted that peanut edible utilization season-to-date is down 3% on the year, despite overall stocks increasing.
A booming butterfat market is good for some dairy products but threatens efficiency and margins for cheesemakers unless protein levels catch up
Smaller flocks and lower lay rates are pressuring table egg supplies, even as hatchery activity edges higher.
Strong corn exports are anchoring U.S. trade, while soybean sales remain steady, but shipments lag.
Smaller slaughter numbers across beef and pork signal tighter supplies into late 2025, while record-low veal production highlights ongoing structural changes in the sector.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Water access—not acreage alone—is driving where irrigation expands or contracts.
Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.
The Lexington shutdown pushes national slaughter capacity utilization nearer long-run averages, underscoring how tight cattle supplies are reshaping packer operations.
Texas livestock producers face a heightened biosecurity threat as New World screwworm detections in northern Mexico coincide with FDA approval of the first topical treatment.
Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.