U.S. Hog Inventory Falls as Herd Contraction Continues

Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report (PDF Version) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows the domestic hog herd slipping again, with 74.5 million head on September 1, 2025, down one percent from a year earlier.

The breeding herd dropped two percent to 5.93 million head, while the market hog inventory of 68.5 million was also off by one percent. The June–August pig crop fell three percent from 2024 to 34.1 million head, even as pigs saved per litter inched higher to 11.82.

Producers signal further cutbacks, with sow farrowing intentions down two percent for September–November and slightly lower for December–February. The numbers came in weaker than some industry expectations, which had anticipated modest herd growth after earlier declines.

Analysts note continuing pressure from productivity and disease challenges, including Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), which has reduced output in key regions.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.
Related Stories
Smaller flocks and lower lay rates are pressuring table egg supplies, even as hatchery activity edges higher.
Strong corn exports are anchoring U.S. trade, while soybean sales remain steady, but shipments lag.
Smaller slaughter numbers across beef and pork signal tighter supplies into late 2025, while record-low veal production highlights ongoing structural changes in the sector.
Fewer placements and historically low marketings point to tighter cattle supplies ahead, with Nebraska and Kansas gaining ground as Texas feedlots face supply pressure and the threat of New World Screwworm.
Industry-wide participation in SHIP enhances biosecurity and fosters global trust in U.S. pork, says swine health expert, Dr. Christine Mainquist-Whigham.
A new study by the National Grains and Feeds Association found that their industry generates $401.7 billion in economic output and supports over 1.16 million jobs nationwide.
What is it like working cattle with an outbreak of New World Screwworm so close to home? Wayne Cockrell, with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, joined us on Wednesday to discuss.
Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
“We believe that it is just a matter of days or weeks... before we see New World screwworm in Texas.”

Agriculture Shows
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.