WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report (PDF Version) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows the domestic hog herd slipping again, with 74.5 million head on September 1, 2025, down one percent from a year earlier.
The breeding herd dropped two percent to 5.93 million head, while the market hog inventory of 68.5 million was also off by one percent. The June–August pig crop fell three percent from 2024 to 34.1 million head, even as pigs saved per litter inched higher to 11.82.
Producers signal further cutbacks, with sow farrowing intentions down two percent for September–November and slightly lower for December–February. The numbers came in weaker than some industry expectations, which had anticipated modest herd growth after earlier declines.
Analysts note continuing pressure from productivity and disease challenges, including Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), which has reduced output in key regions.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.
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Trade uncertainty—especially regarding soybeans—continues to weigh on future outlooks, even as farm finances and land values remain resilient.
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Strong export demand supports feed grain prices, but drought risk and seasonal patterns favor disciplined early-year marketing.
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The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
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New World Screwworm cases in Mexico, including one within 200 miles of the U.S. border, are adding pressure to livestock markets and trade decisions.
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