U.S. Hog Inventory Falls as Herd Contraction Continues

Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report (PDF Version) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows the domestic hog herd slipping again, with 74.5 million head on September 1, 2025, down one percent from a year earlier.

The breeding herd dropped two percent to 5.93 million head, while the market hog inventory of 68.5 million was also off by one percent. The June–August pig crop fell three percent from 2024 to 34.1 million head, even as pigs saved per litter inched higher to 11.82.

Producers signal further cutbacks, with sow farrowing intentions down two percent for September–November and slightly lower for December–February. The numbers came in weaker than some industry expectations, which had anticipated modest herd growth after earlier declines.

Analysts note continuing pressure from productivity and disease challenges, including Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), which has reduced output in key regions.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.
Related Stories
Corn exports remained active the week of May 7, but weak soybean, cotton, and sorghum sales kept attention on China and late-year demand.
Conservation programs may work better when they recognize yield risk and cash-flow pressure during adoption.
Cotton growers can use the survey to compare nutrient, herbicide, and pest-management practices against national production benchmarks.
Higher food costs are showing up beyond the grocery aisle, with some major restaurant chains shrinking their U.S. footprint.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

NCGA President Jed Bower joins us to discuss the House passage of year-round E15 legislation, potential opposition in the Senate, China trade talks, and spring planting progress.
Farmdoc economist estimates 2024 colony stock losses at roughly $175 million, with rebuilding and renovation costs near $161 million.
China’s soybean buying is shifting hard toward Brazil, leaving U.S. shipments at risk of slowing as South America’s record crop reaches export channels
For dairy producers, that could help support fluid milk use in cafeterias, breakfast programs, and other child nutrition settings.
EU simplification may reduce some paperwork, but U.S. exporters still face costly traceability requirements.
Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.