NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. milk production is expected to expand again in 2026, outpacing most major exporters and reinforcing America’s role as the primary driver of global dairy growth, according to the USDA’s latest Dairy: World Markets and Trade report. USDA forecasts U.S. milk production at 106.2 million metric tons, up 1.2 percent from 2025, accounting for most of the net increase among major exporting countries.
The growth reflects continued herd expansion and rising processing capacity in the United States. Strong cheese demand and solid export performance are pulling more milk into plants, encouraging producers to add cows despite higher capital and labor costs. U.S. output gains more than offset modest production declines expected in the European Union and New Zealand.
Outside the U.S., production trends are mixed. Argentina is forecast to post the largest percentage gain, up 4.0 percent in 2026, as pasture conditions and feed availability improve following drought impacts in 2024.
Australia is expected to rebound 1.8 percent, supported by improved rainfall in southern dairy regions and relatively low feed costs, though long-term industry consolidation continues to limit expansion. Conversely, New Zealand output is projected to decline 0.5 percent, as declining cow numbers offset strong milk prices and export demand.
European Union milk production is also forecast to decline by 0.5 percent for the second consecutive year, as environmental regulations, disease pressure, and herd contraction outweigh gains in milk per cow.
Collectively, milk production among major exporters is expected to be 0.4 percent higher in 2026, with the United States accounting for most of the increase.
Farm-Level Takeaway: U.S. dairy producers remain the primary growth engine globally, while tightening supplies in Europe and New Zealand could support export demand for American dairy products.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
November 18, 2025 03:02 PM
·
With feed supplies running tight, producers can tap into some creative options, according to University of Pennsylvania Veterinarian and Professor Dr. Joe Bender.
November 18, 2025 01:13 PM
·
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
November 18, 2025 01:02 PM
·
New SDRP funding and expanded loss programs give producers additional tools to rebuild cash flow and stabilize operations after two years of severe weather losses.
November 18, 2025 11:56 AM
·
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, November 17, 2025.
November 17, 2025 05:05 PM
·
National Pork Board Chief Sustainability Officer Jamie Burr shares a closer look at the Pork Checkoff’s Pork Cares Farm Impact Report, a research program to increase trust in the pork supply chain.
November 17, 2025 02:03 PM
·
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
·
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
November 17, 2025 01:17 PM
·
Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food inflation, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices for beef, eggs, and dairy.
November 16, 2025 03:00 PM
·
