NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. milk production continues to expand, but dairy producers are facing a very different price environment heading into winter. Recent milk production data (PDF Version) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show national milk output up 3.6 percent from August through October, driven by modest gains in cow numbers and slightly stronger production per cow. At the same time, federal order class prices have weakened considerably, creating a tighter margin picture for many farms.
October’s Class I Base price fell to $18.04 per hundredweight — more than $5 below last year — while Class III and Class IV prices also declined by similar margins. Those declines mirror weaker dairy product prices across most categories and suggest that additional downside pressure may continue into early 2026. USDA’s latest forecast expects next year’s all-milk price to average $1.80 per hundredweight lower.
Regionally, production gains were broad, with most states posting year-over-year increases. Butterfat and milk solids output also continued to rise, adding to the overall supply.
Looking ahead, USDA projects U.S. milk production will increase another 2.4 percent in 2026 as herd stabilization and efficiency gains continue.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Congress has just over a month of working days left for the year. Plan for uneven USDA service until funding is restored, and closely monitor Farm Bill talks, as avoiding Permanent Law before January 1 is the single biggest risk to markets and milk prices.
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