U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Ripples Through Agriculture

From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. trade policy is facing mounting scrutiny at home and abroad, as President Donald Trump’s latest initiatives spark backlash from key allies, land before the Supreme Court, and push key markets like China to increase both grain and livestock production to make up for key imports — the uncertainty continues to ripple through global agricultural markets as farmers navigate another volatile year.

President Trump’s Push to Acquire Greenland

Coverage continues now on President Trump’s trade policy. More tariffs could be on the way for several European nations soon. It stems from President Trump’s desire to acquire Greenland. Trump claims acquiring the country, which is currently an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, is a matter of U.S. national security.

But that plan is not sitting well with several key U.S. trade partners across Europe. Leaders at the European Union (EU) responded, saying a “new line has been crossed.”

In a post on social media, President Trump this weekend said he would increase retaliatory tariffs by another 10 percent on countries opposing that acquisition, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Denmark. The White House stands firm, saying Greenland is needed to bolster U.S. national security.

Will the Supreme Court Deliver a Ruling on Tariffs?

The Supreme Court could rule on the president’s tariff plan any day now, with several opinions expected this morning. Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he still believes tariffs are a useful tool for American trade policy.

“If it’s used in a way selectively, in a targeted way that makes sense, if it’s to get something, to accomplish an American objective,” Sen. Thune said. “In some cases, it might be reciprocity with another country that hasn’t been treating us fairly when it comes to trade; there are circumstances in which those tariffs make sense.”

On the other side of the aisle, the President’s tariff policy has not been well-received. House Ag Committee Ranking Member, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), recently unveiled a new relief plan for farmers dealing with higher costs, which she says is the result of the tariff policy.

“Family farmers are going out of business because of Trump’s ill-conceived trade wars,” Rep. Craig said. “Working people are paying more every day at the grocery store, thanks to his across-the-board tariffs.”

Craig released a preview of her Farm and Family Relief Act late last week, and it could be officially filed in the coming days. Craig says the bill will bring economic relief to farmers and low-income families. The bill designates $29 billion in aid to farmers struggling with high input costs. That would be in addition to the $12 billion in farm aid allocated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) through the Farmer Bridge Aid Program.

The White House continues to defend its tariff policy, saying it has helped secure several trade deals that benefit farmers. We will continue to monitor developments from the Supreme Court on Market Day Report and the Rural Evening News as the ag community waits for a ruling.

China Sets Records as Farm Prices Slide Lower

China posted record meat and grain production in 2025, but weaker domestic demand pushed farm prices lower and reduced most agricultural imports, according to analysis from Dr. Fred Gale, economist for China’s agricultural markets. The data point to growing output capacity even as economic conditions limited price support for farmers.

Preliminary government figures show total meat production rose 4.2 percent, topping 100 million metric tons for the first time, led by gains in pork, poultry, and beef. Grain output increased 1.2 percent to 714.9 million metric tons, while cotton production also surged. Soybeans were the major exception in trade flows, with imports rising 6.5 percent to nearly 112 million metric tons, supplying more than 80 percent of domestic needs.

Other imports declined sharply. China cut wheat, corn, cotton, and meat imports, with total agricultural imports down 3.6 percent year over year. Beef imports still accounted for roughly one-quarter of supplies, helping explain recent safeguard tariffs.

Despite strong output, prices weakened. Hog prices fell more than 11 percent for the year, grain prices dropped 2.6 percent, and egg prices declined sharply as production outpaced consumption. Gale notes the price pressure reflects an economy growing more slowly beneath the headline 5 percent GDP figure.

Related Stories
Justin Wheeler with the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers joined us with insight into current farmland values and what to watch in the year ahead.
USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
Strong White House backing supports ethanol demand, but timing now hinges on Congress resolving procedural — at the same time as they push toward a spending bill to avert another federal government shutdown.
Corn and soybean exports continue to anchor weekly inspection totals, with China maintaining a visible role, while wheat and sorghum remain more dependent on regional and seasonal demand shifts.
Roger McEowen, with the Washburn School of Law, offers an in-depth look at two of the top legal issues of 202. Today, he walks through last year’s Waters of the United States (WOTUS) ruling and “lawfare.”
Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us with an update on the historic winter storm impacts and his outlook on today’s ag markets.
Marilyn Schlake with the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics joined us for a closer look at the evolving role of livestock sale barns.
Rail continues to carry a larger share of the grain load, increasing sensitivity to rail capacity, labor, and pricing conditions.
RFD NEWS correspondent Frank McCaffrey recently spoke with Dr. Mike Vickers, a South Texas rancher, who says illegal border crossings have dramatically declined in the last year.

Marion is a digital content manager for RFD News and FarmHER + RanchHER. She started working for Rural Media Group in May 2022, bringing a decade of digital experience in broadcast media and some cooking experience to the team.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farmers will need to closely monitor forecasts if the regulatory changes are implemented, as temperature cutoffs will replace fixed spray dates.
Under this agreement, SCDA will administer a program covering infrastructure and timber losses, as well as future economic and market losses.
With China’s pullback, U.S. sorghum producers must broaden their export markets. Building connections now could help stabilize prices and demand for the upcoming larger crop.
Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
Despite global improvement, food insecurity remains deeply concentrated in vulnerable regions.