U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Ripples Through Agriculture

From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. trade policy is facing mounting scrutiny at home and abroad, as President Donald Trump’s latest initiatives spark backlash from key allies, land before the Supreme Court, and push key markets like China to increase both grain and livestock production to make up for key imports — the uncertainty continues to ripple through global agricultural markets as farmers navigate another volatile year.

President Trump’s Push to Acquire Greenland

Coverage continues now on President Trump’s trade policy. More tariffs could be on the way for several European nations soon. It stems from President Trump’s desire to acquire Greenland. Trump claims acquiring the country, which is currently an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, is a matter of U.S. national security.

But that plan is not sitting well with several key U.S. trade partners across Europe. Leaders at the European Union (EU) responded, saying a “new line has been crossed.”

In a post on social media, President Trump this weekend said he would increase retaliatory tariffs by another 10 percent on countries opposing that acquisition, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Denmark. The White House stands firm, saying Greenland is needed to bolster U.S. national security.

Will the Supreme Court Deliver a Ruling on Tariffs?

The Supreme Court could rule on the president’s tariff plan any day now, with several opinions expected this morning. Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he still believes tariffs are a useful tool for American trade policy.

“If it’s used in a way selectively, in a targeted way that makes sense, if it’s to get something, to accomplish an American objective,” Sen. Thune said. “In some cases, it might be reciprocity with another country that hasn’t been treating us fairly when it comes to trade; there are circumstances in which those tariffs make sense.”

On the other side of the aisle, the President’s tariff policy has not been well-received. House Ag Committee Ranking Member, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), recently unveiled a new relief plan for farmers dealing with higher costs, which she says is the result of the tariff policy.

“Family farmers are going out of business because of Trump’s ill-conceived trade wars,” Rep. Craig said. “Working people are paying more every day at the grocery store, thanks to his across-the-board tariffs.”

Craig released a preview of her Farm and Family Relief Act late last week, and it could be officially filed in the coming days. Craig says the bill will bring economic relief to farmers and low-income families. The bill designates $29 billion in aid to farmers struggling with high input costs. That would be in addition to the $12 billion in farm aid allocated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) through the Farmer Bridge Aid Program.

The White House continues to defend its tariff policy, saying it has helped secure several trade deals that benefit farmers. We will continue to monitor developments from the Supreme Court on Market Day Report and the Rural Evening News as the ag community waits for a ruling.

China Sets Records as Farm Prices Slide Lower

China posted record meat and grain production in 2025, but weaker domestic demand pushed farm prices lower and reduced most agricultural imports, according to analysis from Dr. Fred Gale, economist for China’s agricultural markets. The data point to growing output capacity even as economic conditions limited price support for farmers.

Preliminary government figures show total meat production rose 4.2 percent, topping 100 million metric tons for the first time, led by gains in pork, poultry, and beef. Grain output increased 1.2 percent to 714.9 million metric tons, while cotton production also surged. Soybeans were the major exception in trade flows, with imports rising 6.5 percent to nearly 112 million metric tons, supplying more than 80 percent of domestic needs.

Other imports declined sharply. China cut wheat, corn, cotton, and meat imports, with total agricultural imports down 3.6 percent year over year. Beef imports still accounted for roughly one-quarter of supplies, helping explain recent safeguard tariffs.

Despite strong output, prices weakened. Hog prices fell more than 11 percent for the year, grain prices dropped 2.6 percent, and egg prices declined sharply as production outpaced consumption. Gale notes the price pressure reflects an economy growing more slowly beneath the headline 5 percent GDP figure.

Related Stories
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us to provide analysis on the January WASDE report and expectations for grain markets going forward.
Strong pork demand and improving beef exports outside China support protein markets despite ongoing trade barriers.
Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.
Logistics capacity remains available, but winter volatility favors flexible delivery and marketing plans. NGFA President Mike Seyfert provides insight into grain transportation trends, trade policy, and priorities for the year ahead.
Traders are keeping a close eye on China’s soybean purchases as markets track export sales, shipments, and progress toward the ‘magical’ 12 million ton target promised last year.
Leadership development and bipartisan engagement remain central to advancing agriculture’s priorities in 2026.
How the Public Trust Doctrine Threatens Agricultural Property Rights
In a post to social media, Trump said Venezuela will buy American agriculture products and will use the money from oil sales to make it happen.

Marion is a digital content manager for RFD-TV and The Cowboy Channel. She started working for Rural Media Group in May 2022, adding a decade of experience in the digital side of broadcast media and some cooking experience to the team.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Wind repowering offers a rare opportunity to renegotiate outdated leases and improve long-term land income for landowners who act early.
Midland County Junior Livestock Show in West Texas features swine competition with top exhibitors, including Grand Champion Brinley Wilson, ahead of Saturday’s premium sale.
Rep. Erin Houchin of Indiana discusses how the Affordable Homes Act will benefit rural communities, and her broader efforts to improve access to affordable housing.
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
NEFB President Mark McHargue recaps the Farm Bureau’s Annual Convention, producer sentiment in Nebraska, and discusses key issues facing agriculture.
Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.