U.S. wheat could get more competitive globally if the Ukraine war ends

Market analysts are closely watching the wheat markets as they have seen a rally in recent days. Some think weather is the main driver, but traders have other ideas.

Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions tells us it all comes down to geopolitical pressure. He believes U.S. wheat could get more competitive globally if the war in Ukraine comes to a close.

“Because Russia has been taking wheat out of the Ukraine And other places and selling it on the world market at a very cheap rate. They’re just undercutting everyone in an effort to finance their war. In theory, if the war ends, there’s no reason to finance that war and no reason to take that wheat and dump it on the world market at cheap prices. Maybe this wheat market can recover off of that news.”

China is another area that traders are closely watching. This month’s WASDE report showed changes on balance sheets that could indicate trouble within the Chinese economy.

Related Stories
Analysts say poor crop conditions seen on the annual Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour, combined with cheaper overseas grain supplies, are weighing on the industry as the annual tour wraps up.
EU simplification may reduce some paperwork, but U.S. exporters still face costly traceability requirements.
Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
U.S. grain export inspections stayed solid for the week ending May 7, with corn still leading the export pace and soybeans posting a strong weekly rebound.
Scouts say yields are landing close to USDA projections as they monitor drought pressure and abandonment concerns.
U.S. Wheat Associates is expanding into global fish feed markets, with early gains in South America and new opportunities emerging in Ecuador’s shrimp industry.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Leadership development and bipartisan engagement remain central to advancing agriculture’s priorities in 2026.
AFBF Economist Faith Parum provides analysis and perspective on the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program—what commodity growers should know and potential remedies for producers facing crop losses where that aid falls short.
In a post to social media, Trump said Venezuela will buy American agriculture products and will use the money from oil sales to make it happen.
Federal nutrition policy is signaling a stronger demand for whole foods produced by U.S. farmers and ranchers. Consumer-facing guidance favors animal protein, but institutional demand may change little under existing saturated fat limits.
Farmer Bridge payments are being used primarily to reduce debt and protect cash flow, not drive new spending. Curt Blades with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers joined us to provide insight into the ag equipment market and the factors influencing sales.
Wed, 1/21/26 – 7:30 PM ET
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.