USDA 2025 Small Grains Report Shows Mixed Outcomes

USDA’s report shows wheat strength overall, with winter wheat yields setting records, while spring wheat and rye saw declines. Oats and barley remain constrained by record-low acreage despite stable or rising yields.

grain 1280x720.jpg

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) 2025 Small Grains Annual Summary (PDF Version) shows mixed results across oats, barley, rye, and wheat, with acreage shifts and record yields shaping the year’s harvest.

Oats

Production reached 69.6 million bushels, a 2 percent increase from 2024, driven by larger harvested acreage despite lower yields. At 944,000 acres harvested, the area was up 6 percent, though still among the lowest on record. Record high yields were reported in Illinois, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, while planted acres hit record lows in Idaho, Maine, New York, and Oregon.

Barley

Production fell 2 percent to 141 million bushels, even as yields reached a record 80 bushels per acre. Nationally seeded area fell to 2.3 million acres, the lowest on record. Harvested acres were down 7 percent year over year, with conditions rated sharply lower in early August compared to 2024.

Rye

Production fell 15 percent to 12.5 million bushels, with both harvested acres and yields slipping from last year’s record levels. Pennsylvania planted a record high acreage, while North Carolina hit record lows.

Winter Wheat

Production totaled 1.40 billion bushels, up 3 percent from last year, with record yields reported in several states, including Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas. Harvested area was 25.5 million acres, down 3 percent, while Hard Red Winter wheat reached 804 million bushels, up 4 percent, and Soft Red Winter wheat hit 353 million bushels, up 2 percent. White winter wheat was estimated at 244 million bushels, up 3 percent.

Spring Wheat

Output dropped 9 percent to 497 million bushels, reflecting an 8 percent decline in harvested acres. Yields, however, were still historically strong at 51.7 bushels per acre. Hard Red Spring accounted for 458 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2024.

Durum Wheat

Production rose 8 percent to 86.2 million bushels on higher acreage and improved yields. Montana’s output jumped 29 percent, while North Dakota, the top producer, posted a 3 percent gain.

Farm-Level Takeaway: USDA’s report shows wheat strength overall, with winter wheat yields setting records, while spring wheat and rye saw declines. Oats and barley remain constrained by record-low acreage despite stable or rising yields.
Related Stories
Freight Softens as Producers Plan 2026 Budgets Nationwide
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
CoBank’s 2026 Year Ahead Report cites global grain oversupply, easing inflation, rate cuts, and major data center growth that could reshape rural America.
Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
Strong Farm Credit finances help cushion producers, but prolonged low crop margins could strain renewals in 2026.
USDA data confirms that U.S. agriculture remains overwhelmingly family-run despite structural shifts in scale and production, according to a new analystis by Farm Flavor.
Stronger sorghum genetics could enhance the resilience of bioenergy crops and broaden production options for growers in harsher climates.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Corn export strength remains a key demand anchor, while China’s continued involvement in soybeans and sorghum bears close watching for price direction.
Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions
Bigger cows must wean proportionally heavier calves to justify higher ownership costs.
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.