USDA Lowers Meat Output as Dairy Supplies Grow

Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.

Holstein dairy cows

Getty Images

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows livestock markets experiencing mixed momentum, as cattle and hog production move lower while dairy output continues to grow.

The update gives producers an early view of how slaughter trends, disease pressures, and product prices may shape margins over the next year. Beef and cattle markets see the most signs of tightening, hog supplies are slipping as slaughter slows, and dairy faces downward pressure from larger milk volumes.

For cattle, the USDA lowered 2025 beef production on reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lighter weights, even though cow and bull slaughter is expected to rise. Prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 were revised down and are forecast to remain soft into early 2026. The agency also lowered 2026 beef output as the slower fed-cattle marketings are expected to extend into next year.

Hog markets show similar signs of tightening: USDA reduced 2025 pork production due to a slower slaughter pace that outweighs heavier carcass weights. Updated inventory data also point to smaller hog supplies in 2026, prompting the USDA to raise its 2026 hog price outlook even as late-2025 prices ease.

Dairy markets are moving in the opposite direction. USDA raised milk production forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 on higher cow inventories and stronger productivity. Larger milk supplies are pushing product prices lower — particularly butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk — leading to reduced Class III and Class IV values. The all-milk price is now forecast at $21.05/cwt for 2025 and $19.25/cwt for 2026. Dairy exports, however, were increased due to competitive butter, cheese, and whey markets.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Funding will support studies focused on production challenges, crop management and new opportunities for growers.
John and Savannah Scarborough have expanded their operation to include livestock, microgreens, and compost production.
The trip gave researchers a firsthand look at Brazil’s massive sugarcane industry and production practices.
The university’s dairy program combines hands-on education, technology and dairy production.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The investigation does not prove wrongdoing, but it raises federal scrutiny of a major cost center for crop producers.
The state-level focus is split between labeling and sales restrictions.
For decades, U.S. agriculture has planned around feeding a growing world. Experts say that trend could reverse course in the next 30 years.
The reports cover biodiesel, diesel, gasoline grades, ethanol, aviation fuel, kerosene, and specialty fuels.
Textile strategist Robert Antoshak says responsible fashion is not dead, but voluntary sustainability language is not enough on its own.
The pricing signals come as biofuel and corn groups continue to press Congress for permanent nationwide E15 access.
Agriculture Shows
Check out FFA Today, a fun and fast-paced show featuring fascinating stories about amazing kids and unique agriculture industries.
Farmweek is broadcast from Mississippi, one of the South’s most geographically diverse states. The Magnolia State’s most important resource is its people—and about a fourth of the state’s population hold jobs tied to agriculture.
“DocTalk” with host Dr. Dan Thomson will be teaming up with practitioners around the country to tackle issues with your livestock.
This high-yield corn contest showcases real-life Corn Warriors dealing with elements that every farmer knows well. Get an authentic look at what it takes to compete in a high-yield corn contest, and see who will take the title of Corn King.