NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its 2025 Farm Income Forecast to $179.8 billion, down slightly from February’s $180.1 billion projection. Despite the adjustment, net farm income is still projected to rise nearly 40 percent compared to 2024, largely due to stronger livestock markets and a surge in government payments.
AgAmerica Lending notes that direct government payments are forecast at $40.5 billion, a 356 percent increase from last year, primarily tied to disaster aid and new farm program funding.
Crop markets remain under pressure, however, with receipts for corn, soybeans, and wheat expected to decline. In contrast, receipts for cattle, hogs, and poultry are forecast to be higher on tighter herds and stronger demand.
Rising production expenses remain a concern, with labor and livestock costs climbing even as feed, fuel, and pesticide expenses ease. Farm debt is also forecast to increase to $592 billion, but asset values—especially farmland—continue to support balance sheets. While the short-term outlook is positive, analysts stress that volatility in trade and interest rates could pressure farm finances in the longer term.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses continue to put pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
RFD-TV farm legal and taxation expert, Roger McOwen, joins us with his perspective on what farmers can expect from the delayed aid package.
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Jed Bower, the incoming president of the National Corn Growers Association, joined us for his sector’s perspective on the ongoing government shutdown.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said an announcement would be made on Tuesday. However, that self-imposed deadline has now passed.
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George Baird, with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA), joins us with updates on how this year’s rice harvest is shaping up.
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Expect firm demand for dependable HRS and SW, steady movement in HRW, more sorting on SRW, and selective bids on durum until full milling results are released.
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Dr. Todd Davis, Chief Economist with the Indiana Farm Bureau, shares a snapshot of his state’s harvest conditions and insights from producers.
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