WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
March brought better prices for several commodities, but rising fuel and feed costs kept margins under pressure.
Farmers still earn only a small share of consumer food spending, even as post-farm costs continue to take most of the dollar.
Corn and cotton gave the strongest signals this week, while soybean demand remained softer than in the previous report.
Farmland outlook is tracking closely with producer confidence, investment appetite, and financial expectations.
The Texas Department of Agriculture confirmed a New World Screwworm case about 119 miles from the Texas border, near Zapata, Texas, and north and west of the Rio Grande Valley.
Landowners interested in protecting working ground through an easement now have another funding window open until the end of May.
