USDA Wheat Cuts Trigger Rally in Grain Markets

Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.

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Hard Red Winter Wheat

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WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.

The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.

Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.

WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.

USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.

The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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