WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Eric Weaver with UNL joins us to share about a promising new HPAI vaccine, early test results, next steps in development, and its potential impact on the livestock industry.
April 28, 2026 05:03 PM
·
California almond acreage tightens while pistachios shift into an off-year, shaping a mixed outlook for prices and supply in the tree nut market.
April 28, 2026 04:45 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joins us to break down the latest USDA crop progress report, share insights from growers, and discuss how global factors are shaping planting decisions this season.
April 28, 2026 04:25 PM
·
Growers are making progress with planting despite dry conditions.
April 28, 2026 03:53 PM
·
Dry conditions are already showing up in pastures across the region this April.
April 28, 2026 03:46 PM
·
When the stakes are high, proactive preparation and a firm command of the process are your most powerful tools for effective advocacy.
April 28, 2026 11:33 AM
·
