WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Rising corn and soybean prices may lower expected payments for producers
April 16, 2026 02:27 PM
·
Charly Cummings with Superior Livestock Auction joined us to discuss today’s cattle offering, market demand, and what producers should watch as they plan upcoming sales.
April 16, 2026 12:20 PM
·
Trade disputes can quickly reduce demand for key crops.
April 16, 2026 11:15 AM
·
CoBank Lead Energy Economist Teri Viswanath discusses their analysis of rising energy costs, rural impacts, and the outlook for fuel prices amid ongoing global uncertainty.
April 15, 2026 03:33 PM
·
Risk management and diversification improve survival odds. Heidi Exline with American Farmland Trust discusses barriers to farmland access and efforts to connect the next generation of producers with retiring farmers.
April 15, 2026 03:05 PM
·
The analysis models how trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may continue to drive up the cost of fertilizer.
April 15, 2026 01:10 PM
·
