WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
USDA flash corn sales, Cattle on Feed and Inventory reports, and beef packer antitrust concerns dominate January agricultural market news.
January 13, 2026 01:53 PM
·
Larger grain stocks increase supply pressure, but strong fall disappearance — especially for corn and sorghum — suggests demand remains an important offset.
January 13, 2026 01:02 PM
·
Record corn and sorghum crops boost feed grain supplies, while reduced soybean and cotton production tighten outlooks for oilseeds and fiber markets.
January 13, 2026 12:53 PM
·
Food prices increased in December, but not as much as expected, according to the latest Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
January 13, 2026 12:46 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us to provide analysis on the January WASDE report and expectations for grain markets going forward.
January 13, 2026 12:34 PM
·
Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.
January 12, 2026 03:51 PM
·
