NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — USDA’s November WASDE reinforced what many in the trade expected: supplies remain plentiful across the board, keeping grain markets under steady pressure.
According to P.J. Quaid, Senior Vice President for Agriculture Options at R.J. O’Brien, the report delivered “broadly comfortable” ending stocks for the world’s major crops, with global soybean, corn, and wheat inventories all landing on the heavy side. USDA held U.S. yields at robust levels — 186.0 bushels per acre for corn and 53.0 bushels per acre for soybeans — confirming earlier expectations and anchoring another year of strong overall supply.
Domestically, corn ending stocks rose to 2.154 billion bushels, while soybeans ticked up to 290 million and wheat stayed at a burdensome 901 million bushels. USDA did raise corn exports and total use slightly, but not enough to meaningfully trim the carryout. Soybean stocks-to-use slipped to 6.7%, still within a manageable range given global surpluses and steady crush demand. With large world inventories and minimal surprises in U.S. numbers, futures markets responded cautiously.
The overarching message, Quaid notes, is that grain prices will need a demand spark — or a sharp turn in South American weather — to break out of their current neutral-to-slightly-bearish posture.
Farm-Level Takeaway: USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
November 06, 2025 11:16 AM
·
Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
November 06, 2025 10:53 AM
·
U.S. sugar producers and processors should brace for price pressure and challenging export logistics with global sugar supply ramping up — driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand — especially at the raw processing level.
November 05, 2025 01:02 PM
·
Livestock profits are propping up overall sentiment, but crop producers remain cautious amid tight margins and uncertain policy signals.
November 04, 2025 01:45 PM
·
RaboResearch says China’s pivot from mass production to innovation-driven growth could reshape global pesticide supply chains — and influence prices and product access for U.S. farmers in the coming years.
November 04, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Recent U.S.–China trade developments provided a small lift for soy markets, though most traders are waiting for concrete purchase data before making major moves.
November 04, 2025 12:34 PM
·
