MEMPHIS, Tenn. (RFD News) — Wheat harvest is nearing the finish line, with quality remaining strong across most major classes.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that the hard red winter wheat harvest is complete, with strong milling and baking quality. Protein is slightly above last year.
Soft white wheat harvest is also nearly finished, with average to above-average yields.
Hard red spring wheat is about 80% harvested and remains ahead of the normal pace, with good yields and protein.
Drought has hurt test weights in some areas, while durum wheat reports remain mixed.
Traders Look Ahead to WASDE & Grain Yield Estimates
The agricultural market is bracing for the USDA’s next World Agricultural Supply & Demand Expectations (WASDE) report, scheduled for release on Friday, which will provide the latest season estimates.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to share market expectations for the report, which he says are mixed.
In West Tennessee, Central Arkansas and northern Mississippi, Williamson says corn harvest is moving quickly, with record-early planting and harvest reported in many areas.
He says some producers have already wrapped up their corn harvest, while yields in many areas have been strong.
Williamson says some areas of West Tennessee are seeing corn yields of 240 to 260 bushels per acre, demonstrating the impact of timely rainfall even without irrigation.
However, he says crop conditions farther north and in the western Corn Belt are not as strong.
Williamson expects USDA to be slow to make significant changes to its yield estimates.
“I’m not as pessimistic about what they have as far as yields are concerned as some of the people out here and out there right now,” Williamson said.
He says producers in the Mid-South needed the strong harvest, with rice harvest moving quickly in Arkansas and soybeans also being harvested in the northern portion of the Delta.
Williamson says he would be surprised to see a major change in USDA’s yield data in Friday’s report.
Fund Positions and Market Risk
Williamson also points to fund positions as another factor to watch. The Commitment of Traders report released Friday showed record-long positions in corn and soybean meal.
He says traders will also need to monitor headline risk, including developments in the Black Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East.
Williamson says continued attacks involving grain assets in the Black Sea remain a concern, while uncertainty continues around the Strait of Hormuz.
The upcoming Trump-Xi summit is another event he says could affect markets, with the two leaders expected to meet later this month.
Williamson says sentiment has been positive around the U.S.-China relationship, but the situation remains volatile.
