Wheat
While this month’s WASDE report will not include updated figures on U.S. crop size, officials say it will offer a clearer picture of crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.
While the U.S.-China framework for soybean trade is in place, Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs tells us he will believe it when he sees it.
Wheat futures briefly hit a three-month high before retreating as the markets wait for word on whether the deal will actually happen.
A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
Corn and wheat inspections outpaced last year, but soybean movement remains seasonally active yet behind, keeping basis and freight dynamics in focus by corridor.
Export Inspections In Bushels Show Mixed Momentum Patterns
Expect firm demand for dependable HRS and SW, steady movement in HRW, more sorting on SRW, and selective bids on durum until full milling results are released.
USDA’s report shows wheat strength overall, with winter wheat yields setting records, while spring wheat and rye saw declines. Oats and barley remain constrained by record-low acreage despite stable or rising yields.
Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
Taiwan’s pledge to expand imports strengthens export prospects for U.S. row crops, livestock products, and specialty commodities, while the USDA’s broader trade push seeks to diversify farm markets globally.
Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
The Final Grain Stocks Report may be the last key figures we see if a government shutdown halts future updates.
Strong corn exports are anchoring U.S. trade, while soybean sales remain steady, but shipments lag.
Waiting could risk leaving next year’s crop unprotected.
China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
Corn and beef exports showed strong momentum, cotton sales surged, and soybean sales held steady, though China remains absent from the U.S. market.
Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, making this year’s corn crop one of the largest since the 1930s.