NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — China has been largely absent from U.S. markets lately, but not when it comes to cotton. This week’s export sales data revealed some export purchases headed for the Asian nation. It is a buy that traders say is not surprising, given China’s limitations.
“So, in the case of cotton, they don’t have a lot of other countries to turn to other than the United States,” explained Brian Hoops. “There aren’t that many countries that grow that cotton. You look at where they can buy soybeans from -- well, they have a monster crop out of South America, both Brazil and Argentina this year. Big corn crops out of Brazil, record large there. They can buy corn and soybeans from other countries.”
Wheat is another area that could be under pressure this fall. Hoops says production has ramped up in places like Russia, Argentina, Australia, and Ukraine. All those nations, he says, are boosting wheat output over last year.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
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Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
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Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
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Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
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