CHICAGO (RFD-TV) — The agriculture market is entering its second week without updated harvest progress data as the federal government shutdown continues. While official numbers remain on hold, farmers are still pushing through harvest, with combines rolling across much of the Corn Belt.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
Williamson said many producers are reporting steady progress in the fields, even without USDA updates. However, he noted that the ongoing shutdown has stalled discussions on potential aid packages, leaving farmers uncertain about when financial relief might come.
He added that trade tensions with China continue to weigh on commodity prices, with markets watching closely for any developments that could impact exports of U.S. grain and oilseeds.
Despite the uncertainty, Williamson says most producers remain focused on finishing harvest strong while keeping a close eye on Washington for signs of movement.
And while the markets are looking to stabilize after a tough stretch in grains and oilseeds, Allendale’s chief strategist, Rich Nelson, says traders are still watching for signs of a rebound in soybeans, as tensions with China continue.
“We do expect some type of brief meeting between Trump and the Chinese president on October 31,” Nelson said. “The question we’re all watching is, will this result in any soybean buying, and if so, how much? So, without real confirmation of that type of story, we cannot suggest yet that soybeans need to rebound. And it still leaves the potential open, maybe for pricing under $10 even here. “
Nelson says that it did not matter much for last week’s WASDE report, but says next month could be a much different story.
“The October supply demand report, which we just missed last week -- most people probably had a relatively good explanation for what USDA would have given us, so I don’t think that would be the big surprise for us,” Nelson said. “Keep in mind, the big concern is really as we go into November, that’s when yield declines are typically seen with a little more severity. So, a lot of us are waiting on our yield story to maybe give it some more support. That’s probably still lined up here in next month’s potential supply-demand report.”
The Texas Comptroller points to “unconventional” indicators that can fill some gaps — migration tallies from U-Haul, weekday lunch behavior, grocery and restaurant foot-traffic, copper markets, consumer and pet trends, and even nighttime satellite “light” readings that reflect activity.
Here’s how observers read them:
- More brown-bag lunches and fewer dine-out visits usually signal tighter household budgets — a pattern that can pressure higher-value protein cuts and tilt purchases toward value items.
- Rising grocery foot-traffic with softer restaurant visits often points to belt-tightening and can precede shifts in retail promotions, private-label share, and demand for staple ingredients.
- Strong or rising copper demand generally aligns with active construction and manufacturing — a firmer macro backdrop — while weakness suggests cooling industrial activity.
- Faster price growth, along with falling adoptions and rising pet surrenders, can indicate consumer stress.
Agricultural economists and market observers could build alternative dashboards from these non-official sources — pairing them with market reads like local basis, crush and packer spreads, freight flows, and fuel prices — to interpret conditions until full federal datasets resume.
And speaking of reports, some are still delayed, but others, like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, will still be released in the coming weeks. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is calling workers back to the office to disseminate that information. Right now, the BLS aims to have those numbers out on October 24.
