GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (RFD-TV) — Global farm exporters may see only modest trade gains next year as the latest Goods Trade Barometer from the World Trade Organization (WTO) shows agricultural raw materials lagging other sectors. While overall merchandise trade is still slightly above trend, the ag raw materials index sits at 98.0, below the 100 baseline and weaker than other components.
The headline barometer reading of 101.8 points to continued but moderating trade growth as earlier front-loading ahead of tariffs fades, and demand for AI-related goods cools. In contrast, indicators tied to logistics and manufactured goods — air freight, container shipping, autos, and electronics — are all above trend and still expanding.
For producers, slower growth in agricultural raw materials trade suggests tougher competition for export business and more dependence on domestic demand. Basis at export hubs could turn more sensitive to freight costs, tariffs, and currency swings as buyers shop around.
Export-oriented regions in North America, South America, and the Black Sea will feel these signals most. Grains, oilseeds, cotton, and other bulk commodities in those corridors rely heavily on open markets and predictable rules to keep volumes moving.
Looking ahead to 2026, the WTO expects trade to remain positive but constrained by higher tariffs and ongoing policy uncertainty—a mix that may cap upside for farm exports even if global goods flows remain above trend.
Farm-Level Takeaway: WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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