AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
Elizabeth Strom of the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers joined RFD-TV to provide the latest perspective on post-harvest business planning and cropland markets in the Midwest.
Dalton Henry, with U.S. Wheat Associates, joined RFD-TV to provide insight on what the pending trade frameworks may mean for American wheat growers.
Our friend Jake Charleston at Specialty Risk Insurance joins us for an industry update.
Mary-Thomas Hart, with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, discusses the latest WOTUS developments and their implications for agriculture.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Lower turkey and wheat prices helped ease Thanksgiving costs, but underlying farm-sector pressures remain significant.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Ryan Dunsbergen, soybean product manager for Golden Harvest, shares an overview of their new soybean seed lineup and what growers can expect in 2026.
Bioethanol is becoming a global standard. For growers, that boom comes as drops in Mississippi River levels and in soybean demand occur in tandem, leaving barge space for corn and wheat.
The government shutdown has touched nearly every sector of the ag industry since it began, and now impacts are spilling over into dairy.
With China halting U.S. soybean purchases and talks tied to broader strategic issues, growers face renewed export uncertainty.
Talks highlight the widening role of agriculture in U.S.–India trade policy, though neither side appears ready for major concessions before tariff issues and oil imports are resolved.
Southern farms are deepening online engagement for cost savings and market access, while higher-cost precision technologies face renewed scrutiny amid tight budgets.