AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney discusses Canada’s new soil health strategy, its implications for producers, and its potential to support sustainable agriculture in Canada compared to USDA funding for conservation.
National Association of Wheat Growers President Jamie Kress discusses how rising fertilizer prices pressure wheat producers and the Administration’s consideration of lowering duties on Moroccan phosphate.
Curing title defects in an agricultural context requires a blend of traditional real estate law and a deep understanding of rural land use history.
Senior exhibitor reflects on years of work in the ring and the bond that led to his first sale
After years of showing livestock, Gosda reflects on the bond and responsibility of taking care of her cattle
Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Michael Kelsey joined us to discuss wildfire impacts across the Southern Plains, the importance of community support, and the path forward for affected producers.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

USDA Cattle-on-Feed report for March shows slightly lower inventory and higher February placements, signaling a tighter supply but steady outlook for the U.S. cattle herd.
Nebraska Cattle Rancher Joe Van Newkirk shares his firsthand insight on devastating wildfires in the Sandhills, discusses challenges facing ranchers, long-term calf health concerns, and the recovery efforts underway.
Nebraska Cattlemen’s Association President Craig Uden shares the latest on Nebraska wildfire conditions, discusses challenges facing producers, and outlines relief efforts underway.
Ranchers have a lot going on at the moment, but some ‘friendly’ news could be coming with this month’s Cattle-on-Feed Report from the USDA.
The Trump Administration’s new rule limiting CDL renewals for immigrant truckers is seeing mixed reactions in agriculture. While some support the change, it is raising concerns about higher freight costs and impacts on U.S. grain export competitiveness.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer explains the updates to crop insurance subsidies, additional benefits for new farmers, and eligibility considerations for those entering the program.