As trade talks continue, experts say we could get more potash from Russia

Fertilizer will soon be in high demand. Most U.S. potash supplies come from Canada, but that could change depending on how future trade talks unfold.

“As of right now, we believe that potash is under the 0% tariff rate because it is considered a critical mineral, because it falls underneath our trade agreements for North America. If that’s the case, there’s no reason for our supply routes to change. Yes, Russia will remain number two, but it is a distant number two. Canada will continue to be the major player. Now, if tensions with Canada were to ramp up again and we start seeing more tariff rates on their potash, that is going to change things. We are going to see ourselves try to call more product from places like Russia,” said StoneX’s Josh Linville.

Fertilizer prices are tracking higher recently. Analysts with DTN found last week’s prices for UAN32 gained 10 percent. Potash gained five percent, but is still almost 10 percent off last year’s levels.

Related Stories
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-IA, details how the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) supports farmers, biofuels, and rural communities with tax breaks, crop insurance relief, and ag infrastructure.
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
Fertilizer markets face uncertainty after President Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts warning of supply and pricing risks. Josh Linville with StoneX provides a fertilizer industry outlook.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

CoBank Knowledge Exchange’s Jeff Johnston shares the group’s positive perspective on expanding data centers into rural areas and weighs the risks and rewards for those communities.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer discusses how January’s WASDE report could impact ARC and PLC payments and updates on disaster relief programs as farmers navigate a challenging market environment.
Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Sid Miller joined us to discuss data center expansion, farmland preservation, rural economic impacts, and imminent cattle biosecurity concerns affecting agriculture today.
The Pennsylvania Farm Show continues through Saturday, wrapping up another successful year of celebrating agriculture in the Commonwealth.
Shaun Haney joined us to discuss Canada’s new trade agreement with China, the potential impact on farmers and exporters, and what it could mean for U.S.–Canada trade relations going forward.
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.