NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A bigger Australian harvest is helping swell world grain supplies and weigh on prices heading into 2026. National production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at 64.2 million tons, up 5.2 million tons or 8.8 percent from last year, supported by widespread rainfall across key grain belts. Western Australia could record its second-largest crop on record, while Queensland and northern New South Wales continue to benefit from strong soil moisture reserves.
Improved wheat and canola yields, alongside expanded barley plantings, are driving the increase, according to Rabo Research. However, Australia faces tough export competition as large crops in Russia, the European Union, and the United States add to global supply. High carryover stocks in Australia and Canada are also limiting price upside, leaving domestic wheat values under pressure even as export demand stays firm.
Barley output is on track for near-record levels, putting more focus on export pace and feed grain use in domestic livestock sectors. Canola exports to Europe may soften with stronger EU production, though reduced sunflower output elsewhere and restocking needs could support non-GM canola prices. Chinese demand for Australian canola is expected to strengthen again in 2026, improving prospects for GM varieties.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
The U.S. has a bountiful corn supply, but markets are waiting for the January WASDE Report, which will include updated yield estimates.
December 15, 2025 11:34 AM
·
Freight Softens as Producers Plan 2026 Budgets Nationwide
December 15, 2025 10:48 AM
·
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
December 12, 2025 03:32 PM
·
Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
December 12, 2025 12:25 PM
·
Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
December 12, 2025 11:47 AM
·
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.
December 11, 2025 01:53 PM
·
Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
December 11, 2025 01:32 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities breaks down the outlook on grain storage and domestic supply chain strength as producers weigh planting decisions with forthcoming federal aid.
December 11, 2025 01:11 PM
·
December 10, 2025 11:03 AM
