NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s fast-growing corn ethanol industry is creating new risks and opportunities for U.S. corn producers. Analysis from Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky at Martin, shows Brazil’s expanding domestic corn use could reshape global trade flows and add volatility to corn prices.
Brazil has long been a major ethanol producer, traditionally relying on sugarcane. But by 2024, about 20 percent of the country’s ethanol output came from corn, driven largely by safrinha production in the Center-West region.
Corn ethanol capacity in Brazil is projected to start near 23 million metric tons in 2026 and could grow to between 33 and 55 million metric tons by 2035. Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop totaled about 5.56 billion bushels, meaning projected 2026 ethanol capacity would consume a meaningful share of production.
As more corn moves into ethanol and feed use, export availability may fluctuate, which could reduce competition with U.S. corn in some years but increase volatility in global markets and futures prices.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Brazil’s ethanol growth could shift the corn trade.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
The Fertilizer Research Act, reintroduced by Sens. Grassley, Ernst, and Baldwin, would direct the USDA to study and publish public reports on competition and pricing trends in the fertilizer market.
September 16, 2025 05:08 PM
·
Allowing year-round sales of E15 nationally could deliver billions in economic gains, according to a new study from the Renewable Fuels Association and National Corn Growers Association.
September 16, 2025 02:29 PM
·
Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.
September 16, 2025 12:42 PM
·
Farmers await concrete trade commitments from China. Until then, export prospects for soybeans, corn, and sorghum remain uncertain against strong South American competition.
September 16, 2025 11:04 AM
·
National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust said farmers face a challenging year with strong supply, murky trade conditions, and uncertain access to their largest market: China.
September 15, 2025 01:59 PM
·
U.S. trade talks with China resume, but meat industry leaders say dealing with shifting demand and market uncertainty is nothing new in this side of the ag sector.
September 15, 2025 12:57 PM
·
