NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — China’s soybean buying is shifting hard toward Brazil, leaving U.S. shipments at risk of slowing as South America’s record crop reaches export channels. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale says China imported about 312 million bushels of soybeans in April, more than double the March volume.
Brazil’s role is expanding quickly. Gale says Brazil shipped a record 425 million bushels of soybeans to China in April, with the USDA estimating Brazil’s crop at a record 6.6 billion bushels.
For U.S. producers, the concern is timing. The U.S. has shipped about 393 million bushels to China since the late-October Trump-Xi summit, when China reportedly pledged to buy about 441 million bushels.
Brazil exported about 1.47 billion bushels of soybeans during the first four months of 2026, with 69 percent headed to China.
Gale says China is preparing to process 367 million to 404 million bushels of Brazilian soybeans monthly beginning in June, leaving fewer near-term openings for U.S. sales.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Brazil’s record soybean flow could pressure U.S. export opportunities to China during the summer shipping window.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
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