NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — China’s soybean buying is shifting hard toward Brazil, leaving U.S. shipments at risk of slowing as South America’s record crop reaches export channels. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale says China imported about 312 million bushels of soybeans in April, more than double the March volume.
Brazil’s role is expanding quickly. Gale says Brazil shipped a record 425 million bushels of soybeans to China in April, with the USDA estimating Brazil’s crop at a record 6.6 billion bushels.
For U.S. producers, the concern is timing. The U.S. has shipped about 393 million bushels to China since the late-October Trump-Xi summit, when China reportedly pledged to buy about 441 million bushels.
Brazil exported about 1.47 billion bushels of soybeans during the first four months of 2026, with 69 percent headed to China.
Gale says China is preparing to process 367 million to 404 million bushels of Brazilian soybeans monthly beginning in June, leaving fewer near-term openings for U.S. sales.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Brazil’s record soybean flow could pressure U.S. export opportunities to China during the summer shipping window.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Stronger overseas demand for both fuel ethanol and feed co-products continues to reinforce corn use beyond the domestic market.
Based on USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation, pork exports increased by six percent in March compared to the previous year, while beef exports weakened overall.
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney joins us to discuss geopolitical trade tensions, energy market volatility, and what global shifts could mean for U.S. agriculture exports.
New trade access, tariff concerns and international negotiations are reshaping the global beef market.
Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs joins us to discuss planting progress, weather conditions, and how geopolitical tensions are clouding his growing season outlook as input concerns continue to escalate.
This case could influence how much leverage grain shippers have when a preferred rail outlet is blocked or priced too high.
